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Prediction for CME (2024-05-10T07:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-10T07:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30670/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Full asymmetric halo CME seen to the SW in all three coronagraphs. Source is a large eruption and several M-class flares from Active Region 13664, including a long-duration M4.9 flare associated with the post-eruptive arcades. Widely opening field lines and a rising loop of ejecta seen starting at 2024-05-13T08:10Z in SDO AIA 193/171. Ejecta and post-eruptive brightening and arcades seen at 08:43Z in SDO AIA 131/304. Post eruptive arcades at 11:15Z in SDO AIA 171/193/304. Possible arrival signature (in review) characterized by Btotal increasing from 5nT 2024-05-11T08:55Z to 12nT at 08:58Z, an increase in solar wind speed from ~820 km/s at 08:55Z to 925 km/s, with an increase in temperature as well.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-12T08:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-12T10:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
Prediction Method Note: 
predicted CME shock arrival time： 2024-05-12T10:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive： 80%
Max Kp Range： 5-7
Lead Time: 30.65 hour(s)
Difference: -1.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) on 2024-05-11T02:16Z
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